Find the Best Tigers vs Royals Picks and Odds – 9/16/2024

Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on September 16, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive American League Central matchup. The Royals currently hold an 82-68 record, positioning them well above average this season, while the Tigers sit at 77-73, reflecting a more pedestrian performance. Kansas City is looking to rebound after a narrow 4-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, while Detroit comes off a solid 4-2 victory against the Baltimore Orioles.

On the mound, the Royals will send out Seth Lugo, who has had an impressive season with a 16-8 record and an excellent ERA of 2.94. Lugo’s last outing was particularly strong, as he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball, striking out 10 batters. In contrast, the Tigers will counter with Reese Olson, who has struggled somewhat with a 4-8 record and a 3.23 ERA. Olson’s recent performance was abbreviated, as he went only 2 innings in his last start.

From a betting perspective, the Royals are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting a 57% implied win probability. However, projections suggest that Kansas City’s true win probability is closer to 52%, indicating potential value in betting on the Tigers, who have a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%.

Offensively, the Royals rank 12th overall in MLB, bolstered by Bobby Witt Jr., who has been their standout hitter this season. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ offense has struggled, ranking 24th in the league. As both teams face off, the Royals’ solid pitching and the Tigers’ lackluster offense will be key factors to watch.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Reese Olson to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 60 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Kerry Carpenter has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year’s 94.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Detroit’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has utilized his non-fastballs 7.6% more often this year (55.8%) than he did last season (48.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Adam Frazier has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .204 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .246 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 81 of their last 143 games (+11.34 Units / 6% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 29 away games (+16.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+10.10 Units / 45% ROI)