Find the Best Rays vs Mariners Picks and Odds – 8/27/2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for a Wild Card spot, with the Mariners sitting at 67-65 and the Rays at 65-66. Yesterday, the Mariners secured a convincing 5-1 victory over the Rays, marking an important win that could provide momentum for this matchup.

The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound, who has been a standout pitcher this season. Ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Gilbert boasts a solid ERA of 3.21 and is projected to allow an elite 1.7 earned runs on average today. However, he did struggle in his most recent outing, giving up 6 earned runs in just 5 innings, raising questions about his current form.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Jeffrey Springs, who has had a mixed season. Springs has an average ERA of 4.50 and has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 3.91 SIERA. While he projects to allow 2.3 earned runs today, his last start resulted in 3 earned runs over just 3 innings, which does not inspire confidence.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season. The Mariners rank 27th in MLB in overall offense and dead last in team batting average, while the Rays sit at 23rd in batting average and 26th in home runs. Both offenses are projected to score very low runs today, with the Mariners at 3.78 and the Rays at 2.94.

Given these factors, the Mariners are favored with a moneyline of -155, reflecting their recent success and the projections that suggest they may outperform their implied team total of 3.57 runs. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they look to gain ground in the playoff chase.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 9 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jeffrey Springs meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has had bad variance on his side this year. His .279 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .326.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Over his last 3 outings, Logan Gilbert has seen a sizeable increase in his fastball velocity: from 95.8 mph over the whole season to 96.9 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Justin Turner is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 79 of their last 128 games (+27.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+16.30 Units / 37% ROI)