Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Astros vs Rockies – 7/3/25

Houston Astros

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Houston Astros on July 3, 2025, at Coors Field for the third game of their series. After a challenging first two games, Houston has already secured momentum and is looking to build on their impressive season, boasting a 52-34 record compared to Colorado’s dismal 19-67. The Rockies are struggling, having lost their last game by a significant margin, reflecting their ongoing season woes.

On the mound, Colorado is projected to start left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough 2025, holding a 1-9 record and a poor 5.56 ERA. His recent performances highlight a difficult year, complemented by a 3.89 xFIP that suggests some misfortune but still paints him as a bottom-tier pitcher, ranking 158th among starting pitchers. Additionally, Freeland’s low strikeout (16.9 K%) and low walk (5.2 BB%) rates may not serve him well against a disciplined Astros offense, which ranks 5th in fewest strikeouts and walks.

Conversely, Houston will counter with Brandon Walter, also a left-handed pitcher, who has performed admirably this season with a 3.34 ERA over five starts. Walter’s 2.66 xFIP indicates he could further improve, and he possesses a solid strikeout ability combined with a remarkably low walk rate (1.6 BB%). Given Walter’s ranking as the 59th best starter, he enters this matchup with a clear advantage.

The Astros offense, while ranked 14th overall, is bolstered by recent outstanding performances, including a player batting an eye-popping .478 over the last week. In contrast, the Rockies are mired with the 25th and 27th worst rankings in both offensive production and batting average, respectively.

With a game total set at a high 11.0 runs, the implied team totals suggest the Rockies are expected to score around 4.76 runs, while the Astros should net approximately 6.24. With Houston as the heavy favorite, this matchup looks to tilt heavily in favor of the Astros as they continue to build their case for a playoff push.

Houston Astros Insights

• Brandon Walter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Brandon Walter’s 87.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 3rd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Typically, batters like Isaac Paredes who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kyle Freeland.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston Astros batters as a group have been among the worst in baseball this year ( 2nd-worst) as it relates to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Freeland to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the 2nd-most runs (6.2 on average) on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 73 games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-185)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 37 games (+15.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)