Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-115
On July 8, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium for the first game of their series. Both teams enter this matchup with solid records, as the Yankees are 49-41 and the Mariners are 48-42, showcasing their above-average seasons. The Yankees, currently ranked 2nd in MLB for their offense, have been particularly explosive, leading the league in home runs, while the Mariners sit at 12th overall.
In their last outing, the Yankees faced off against the Texas Rangers, coming off a strong win that showcased their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Mariners are looking to rebound after a challenging stretch. For this game, the Yankees are projected to start right-hander Will Warren, who has had a mixed season with a 5-4 record and a 5.02 ERA. However, his 3.31 xFIP indicates that he’s been somewhat unlucky and is poised for better performance. On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Logan Gilbert, who has been excellent this year, boasting a 2-2 record and a stellar 3.40 ERA. Gilbert ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, and his high strikeout rate (36.8 K%) could pose problems for a Yankees lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts.
Despite the Yankees’ pitching struggles, their potent offense is likely to capitalize on Gilbert’s challenges with hits allowed. The projections suggest the Yankees could score around 4.61 runs, while the Mariners are projected at 4.39 runs. Given the Yankees’ home-field advantage and their strong lineup, they are favored to take this closely contested matchup.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Logan Gilbert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue in the majors today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)J.P. Crawford may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Seattle Mariners batters collectively place 9th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.3% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
New York Yankees Insights
- Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)As a result of his large platoon split, Will Warren will not have the upper hand going up against 6 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Extreme groundball batters like DJ LeMahieu usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)