Find the Best Brewers vs Reds Picks and Odds – 9/1/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park on September 1, 2024, both teams are coming off a closely contested matchup. Yesterday, the Brewers edged out the Reds with a 5-4 victory, continuing their strong season while Cincinnati struggles to keep pace.

Currently, the Reds hold a record of 64-73, and they find themselves well below average this season. In contrast, the Brewers boast an impressive 80-56 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the National League Central. Despite the Reds’ challenges, they possess some offensive depth; they rank 1st in MLB for stolen bases and 13th in home runs, suggesting their ability to pressure defenses. However, their team batting average remains a cause for concern as they sit at 27th overall.

On the mound, Cincinnati will send Brandon Williamson to the hill, who is coming off a solid performance where he allowed just two earned runs over six innings. Williamson’s recent effort may provide a glimmer of hope for a Reds team that has struggled with consistency. On the opposing side, Tobias Myers of the Brewers has a commendable 2.99 ERA, though his xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. Notably, he has also shown a tendency to allow hits, averaging 5.3 per start, which could be a factor if the Reds can capitalize.

Despite the odds favoring the Brewers with a moneyline set at -135, the projections indicate that the Reds may hold some value. The leading MLB projection system gives Cincinnati a win probability of 50%, slightly skewed against the market’s expectation. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, fans can expect an exhilarating matchup as both teams aim to make their mark in this pivotal series.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Tobias Myers has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -8.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Will Benson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 89.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Placing steepest in baseball this year, Cincinnati Reds bats collectively have notched a 16.4° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to study power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+14.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 136 games (+14.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)