Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Guardians vs Tigers Match – 9/18/25

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park on September 18, 2025, the stakes are palpable. Detroit currently boasts an impressive 85-67 record, while Cleveland stands at 80-71, both eyeing a strong finish to the season. The Tigers are fresh off a 5-0 win where they showcased their pitching prowess, an encouraging sign heading into this American League Central clash.

The matchup pits elite left-hander Tarik Skubal against the promising right-hander Tanner Bibee. Skubal, ranked 1st among starting pitchers by the leading MLB projection system, holds a stellar 2.26 ERA this season and is projected to allow just 1.8 earned runs today. Although his recent performances indicate he might have been slightly lucky, he remains a significant threat on the mound. In contrast, Bibee’s 4.44 ERA suggests average performance, but his xERA of 3.73 indicates he could be primed for improvement.

Offensively, the Tigers hold the 12th best rank in MLB, with a notable number of home runs, but they struggle significantly with stolen bases. Conversely, the Guardians’ offense has struggled all season, ranking 29th in the league and facing a daunting task against Skubal. Their best hitter has been on a tear, recording a .400 batting average over the past week, but the overall lack of support could hinder their efforts significantly today.

Detroit enters this game favored to win with a moneyline of -205, projecting an average of 4.10 runs, while Cleveland’s low implied total of 2.90 runs highlights their uphill battle. With such a mismatch on the mound and offensive struggles for the Guardians, this game heavily leans toward a Tigers victory.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Tanner Bibee’s fastball spin rate has decreased 119 rpm this year (2242 rpm) below where it was last year (2361 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.312) implies that Nolan Jones has had some very poor luck this year with his .271 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-200/+155)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 3.1 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Colt Keith is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 5th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 87 of their last 152 games (+19.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 52 away games (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)