Find Out How to Watch Yankees vs Marlins – Friday, August 1st, 2025

New York Yankees logo

New York Yankees

@
Miami Marlins logo

Miami Marlins

-150O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)
+130

The Miami Marlins will host the New York Yankees on August 1, 2025, in the first game of an interleague series at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins are currently sitting at 52-55, navigating an average season, while the Yankees boast a stronger 60-49 record, marking them as one of the top teams in baseball.

In their most recent game, the Yankees saw their ace Carlos Rodon tossing a complete game, solidifying his status as one of the better pitchers in the league this season. Rodon, ranked 69th among MLB starters, has put together a strong year with a 3.18 ERA and has a favorable strikeout rate of 28.0%. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings with an average of 2.5 earned runs today, showcasing his ability to keep opposing offenses at bay.

On the other hand, Janson Junk is set to take the mound for the Marlins. Although ranked 147th amongst starters, Junk has a 5-2 record with a sparkling 3.28 ERA this year. However, his projections indicate he may struggle today, projected to allow 2.7 earned runs but facing a Yankees offense that is ranked 1st overall in baseball. Junk’s below-average strikeout (18.3 K%) and the challenge of facing a high-strikeout Yankees lineup could spell trouble for the Marlins.

While the Marlins’ offense ranks a disappointing 21st in the league, they do hold a respectable 9th in batting average. However, they have struggled with power, sitting 26th in home runs. The projections suggest a low-scoring matchup, with a game total set at 7.5 runs. Given the current odds, the Marlins are underdogs with a moneyline of +145, reflecting their uphill battle against a Yankees team primed for success.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
    Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (93.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).
    Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
  • Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
    In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Giancarlo Stanton has been very fortunate this year. His .365 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .290.
    Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
  • The 11.5% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 offense in MLB this year by this standard.
    Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins Insights

  • Janson Junk – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
    Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Janson Junk is projected to throw 82 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of the day.
    Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
  • Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
    Kyle Stowers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.
    Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
  • Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
    Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
    Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

  • Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
    The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+18.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
    The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 93 games (+7.22 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
    Dane Myers has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.50 Units / 72% ROI)