Find Out How to Watch Twins vs Royals – Thursday, April 10th, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on April 10, 2025, both teams are seeking to break out of their early-season slumps. The Royals currently sit at 6-6, trying to maintain average performance, while the Twins are struggling at 4-8, marking one of the worst starts in the league. In their most recent encounter, the Twins shut out the Royals 4-0, highlighting the Royals’ offensive challenges.

Kansas City’s offense ranks 23rd in the league and is showing signs of weakness, especially given their 29th position in home runs. With Michael Wacha taking the mound, they hope to leverage his experience to improve their fortunes. Wacha, ranked 88th among MLB starting pitchers, is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, despite a high walk rate of 12.2% this year. His last outing was uneventful, giving up 4 earned runs over 6 innings.

Bailey Ober, who is projected to start for Minnesota, has had a rough start with a 12.15 ERA and a high walk rate of 13.9%. He’s ranked 46th among pitchers, suggesting he might be better than his early performance indicates. Ober also carries a significant flyball tendency, which could play into the Royals’ weak power numbers.

The projections lean towards the Royals finding a way to capitalize on their home-field advantage. Given the Twins’ poor offensive performance and the Royals’ slight edge in pitching, this matchup might offer Kansas City an opportunity to bounce back and secure a much-needed win as they aim to improve their overall record. The Game Total sits at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting a tense but potentially close contest.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Kansas City’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Minnesota Twins have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Michael Wacha has relied on his secondary offerings 7.7% less often this season (53.3%) than he did last season (61%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Cavan Biggio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Cavan Biggio has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 84 games at home (+1.20 Units / 1% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-205)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.25 Units / 33% ROI)