Find Out How to Watch Reds vs Cubs – Friday, September 27th, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds on September 27, 2024, at Wrigley Field, both teams find themselves in the latter stages of a challenging National League Central season. The Cubs, currently holding an 81-78 record, are having an average season and will look to maintain their edge over the Reds, who have struggled to a 76-83 record.

Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Cubs, and despite a below-average ranking of #138 among starting pitchers, his 3.41 ERA suggests he’s capable of delivering solid performances. However, his 4.12 xFIP indicates some luck may have been involved, hinting at potential regression. On the other side, Nick Martinez starts for the Reds. Ranked #76, Martinez has been a reliable arm, boasting a 3.22 ERA, although his 3.89 xFIP hints at possible overachievement this season as well.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 13th in the league, with a particular strength in stealing bases, ranking 8th. Their lineup is headlined by the recent success of Nico Hoerner, who has been on fire over the past week, batting .389 with two homers. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense ranks 17th, despite a poor team batting average of 26th. Jonathan India has been a bright spot, posting a .286 average and one home run over his last five games.

The Cubs’ bullpen ranks 22nd, slightly better than the Reds’ at 25th, which could play a crucial role in this low-scoring affair. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are favored with a 59% win probability, as their balanced lineup and home-field advantage give them the edge. With both teams aiming to finish the season on a high note, this matchup promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under Total Bases
  Over the last week, Spencer Steer’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Cincinnati Reds offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Jameson Taillon has tallied 17.6 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 89th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under Total Bases
  Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.9-mph EV last year has fallen off to 84.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under Team Total
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games at home (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under Team Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 131 games (+11.45 Units / 7% ROI)