Find Out How to Watch Orioles vs Astros – Sunday, August 17th, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Houston Astros

On August 17, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park for the third game in their series. The Astros currently hold a solid record of 69-54 and are positioned well in the American League. In contrast, the Orioles sit at 56-67, struggling through a below-average season. The Astros are coming off a strong performance, while the Orioles have been inconsistent of late.

Cristian Javier is projected to take the mound for the Astros. Despite being ranked the 207th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Javier has managed a 1-0 record this season with a solid 3.60 ERA. However, he has only made one start this year and is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings, which raises concerns about his durability. He does have a high walk rate of 10.5%, but he’ll face an Orioles offense that ranks 3rd least in walks, which could work in his favor.

Dean Kremer will be on the hill for Baltimore. With a record of 8-9 and an ERA of 4.17, Kremer has been slightly better than Javier in terms of experience, having started 24 games this season. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, which is average, but he also struggles with walks, sitting at 6.2%. The Astros offense, ranked 13th overall and 3rd in batting average, should be able to capitalize on this.

Betting markets currently favor the Astros with a moneyline of -135, implying a close contest. However, given the Astros’ overall offensive capabilities and the struggles of both pitchers, they may have the edge needed to secure a victory in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  In his previous game started, Dean Kremer allowed a whopping 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Colton Cowser is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Cristian Javier – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over groundball batters, Cristian Javier and his 44.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today’s game going up against 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  Placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Carlos Correa has paced 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+10.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 104 games (+19.03 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games (+5.65 Units / 140% ROI)