New York Mets
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+130
As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the New York Mets on April 1, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back after a significant matchup the day before, where the Mets triumphed 10-4. The Marlins, currently sitting at 3-2, are off to a solid start this season and will be eager to leverage their home field advantage at LoanDepot Park. However, they will need to overcome their struggles at the plate, as their offense ranks 29th overall in MLB.
Sandy Alcantara is projected to take the mound for the Marlins, and while he has a respectable 3.86 ERA this season, his 2.57 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Alcantara has only pitched one game this year, where he allowed 2 earned runs over 6 innings. On the other side, Kodai Senga will start for the Mets. Senga has had a rough go lately, with his last outing seeing him surrender 3 earned runs in just 1 inning. His overall projections indicate he may struggle again, averaging just 4.4 innings pitched with a concerning number of walks.
Despite the Marlins’ offensive woes, they have a chance to capitalize on Senga’s struggles. The Mets’ offense, ranked 33rd, has also been underwhelming, with a team batting average of just .249. Given the current odds, the Marlins are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +130. However, with Alcantara on the mound and the projections indicating a potential rebound, Miami may just surprise the betting community by pulling off a win in this pivotal matchup. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both offenses today.
New York Mets Insights
- Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Kodai Senga’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (60.3% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-150)The New York Mets projected batting order ranks as the best of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (14.7) provides evidence that Graham Pauley has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 37.5 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineThe Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 65 games at home (+25.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-150)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 108 games (+19.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+170/-225)Jose Siri has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)