Find Out How to Watch Marlins vs Rockies – Thursday, August 29th, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Colorado Rockies

On August 29, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the Miami Marlins at Coors Field for the fourth game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies sitting at 50-84 and the Marlins at 48-85. The Rockies’ recent performance has been lackluster, but they did manage to secure a win in their last game against the Marlins, which may provide a much-needed boost to their morale.

The Rockies are projected to send Bradley Blalock to the mound. Despite being ranked as the 274th best starting pitcher in MLB, Blalock has posted a solid ERA of 3.06 this year, suggesting he has been somewhat lucky. His ability to generate fly balls may work in his favor against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in home runs, indicating they struggle to capitalize on such opportunities. Additionally, the Rockies’ offense is ranked 18th overall but sits 12th in batting average, which is a sign of their potential to generate runs.

On the other hand, Valente Bellozo will take the hill for the Marlins. Bellozo’s numbers are concerning, as he also falls into the category of one of the worst pitchers in MLB, with an ERA of 3.35. His low strikeout rate could be problematic against a Rockies lineup that has the 3rd most strikeouts in the league.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Rockies have an implied team total of 6.02 runs, indicating that betting markets see them as having the edge in this matchup. With the Marlins’ struggling offense and Blalock’s favorable matchup, this game could tilt in the Rockies’ favor despite their overall poor season.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Valente Bellozo has suffered a notable drop off in his fastball velocity: from 88.9 mph over the entire season to 87.9 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+130/-170)
  Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Miami Marlins have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Burger, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, Derek Hill, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Bradley Blalock has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 9.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jordan Beck’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 85.5-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 80.6-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (-140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 57 games at home (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+13.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Jacob Stallings has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+7.95 Units / 40% ROI)