Find Out How to Watch Blue Jays vs Rangers – Thursday, September 19th, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off on September 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of below-average seasons. The Rangers, with a record of 73-79, narrowly edge out the Blue Jays, who stand at 72-80. Despite their struggles, both teams are looking to finish strong in the American League matchup at Globe Life Field.

In their last encounter on September 18, the Rangers shut out the Blue Jays with a 2-0 victory, thanks in part to their stellar bullpen, ranked 5th in the league. The Rangers’ offense, however, has been a weak point, currently sitting at 25th best in MLB. This contrasts with the Blue Jays, who boast an average offense ranked 15th, despite their struggles with power being ranked 25th in home runs.

On the mound, Texas will start Kumar Rocker, who is ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his excellent 2.25 ERA, his 4.42 FIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky this season. Rocker projects to allow only 1.8 earned runs today, which bodes well for Texas. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will counter with Kevin Gausman, who holds an above-average 4.02 ERA. However, his 4.99 xERA indicates potential regression. Gausman’s projection of 2.6 earned runs allowed today could be a concern against a Rangers team looking to capitalize on any pitching weaknesses.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a 59% win probability, suggesting there might be value in betting on Texas as they aim to secure another win in this series. With both teams’ playoff hopes dashed, this matchup is more about pride and ending the season on a high note.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.5% less often this year (41.7%) than he did last year (49.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ernie Clement’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 85.1-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 75.4-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 21.6% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  In his previous GS, Kumar Rocker was firing on all cylinders and compiled 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  When it comes to his home runs, Wyatt Langford has been unlucky this year. His 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.5.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games at home (+13.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 away games (+7.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+18.80 Units / 51% ROI)