Find Betting Odds and Bets for Padres vs Pirates – May 3rd, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the San Diego Padres on May 3, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Pirates, currently sitting at 12-21, are struggling this season, while the Padres boast a solid 20-11 record. In their last meeting on May 2, the Pirates fell to the Padres by a score of 9-4, continuing their rough stretch.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Bailey Falter, a left-handed pitcher who has had a challenging season with a 5.93 ERA and a Power Ranking of #270 among MLB starters. Falter’s last outing saw him surrender 5 earned runs over 4 innings, raising concerns about his effectiveness. He faces a Padres offense that ranks 9th overall and 3rd in batting average, making this a tough matchup for him. Additionally, Falter’s low strikeout rate (17.3 K%) against a Padres lineup that is the least strikeout-prone in the league could lead to further difficulties.

Randy Vasquez, the Padres’ projected starter, has also struggled, with a 4.28 ERA and a concerning 6.71 xFIP. However, Vasquez’s ability to limit damage has kept him competitive, and he’ll look to build on his recent performance where he allowed 3 earned runs over 5 innings.

The Pirates’ offense has been lackluster this season, ranking 25th overall and 27th in batting average, while their power numbers are even worse, sitting at 28th in home runs. In contrast, the Padres’ lineup features a top-10 offense, making it likely that they will capitalize on any mistakes made by Falter.

With the Game Total set at 9.5 runs, and the Pirates holding a moneyline of -125, betting markets suggest a close contest. However, given the current form and offensive capabilities, the Padres may have the upper hand in this matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Oscar Gonzalez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Oscar Gonzalez is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The San Diego Padres (19.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #25 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Oneil Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.8-mph to 101.5-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+3.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 55% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 49% ROI)