Find Betting Odds and Bets for Mets vs Angels – August 4th, 2024

New York Mets

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets meet for the third game of their series on August 4, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels are currently struggling, sitting at 48-63, while the Mets hold a solid 58-52 record. Despite their lackluster performance this season, the Angels managed to edge out the Mets 5-4 in a close matchup yesterday, highlighting their potential to surprise.

Projected starters for this contest are Griffin Canning for the Angels and Jose Quintana for the Mets. Canning, ranked as the 259th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a rough season, evidenced by his 3-10 record and a 5.25 ERA. His last outing was particularly challenging, allowing 6 earned runs on 6 hits in just 6 innings. On the other hand, Quintana, though not exceptional, has been more reliable with a 6-6 record and a commendable 3.89 ERA. The projections suggest that he may have been somewhat lucky this year, indicated by his xFIP of 4.40.

Offensively, the Angels have struggled, ranking 24th in MLB, while the Mets boast a much stronger attack, sitting at 8th overall. The Mets’ power is particularly noteworthy, as they have hit 132 home runs this season, ranking 4th in the league. Canning’s high flyball rate (36% this year) could play into the Mets’ hands, turning potential flyouts into home runs.

Despite the Angels’ underdog status, projections indicate they have a chance to score around 5.12 runs today, while the Mets are projected for 5.71 runs. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, signaling expectations of a high-scoring affair. With the Angels showing some fight in their recent win, this matchup could be tighter than anticipated, especially with favorable odds for the Angels.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Jose Quintana’s fastball velocity of 90.1 mph ranks in the 5th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Mark Vientos has been lucky this year, putting up a .378 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .060 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Griffin Canning will concede an average of 3.28 earned runs in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Zach Neto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Kevin Pillar pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 61 of their last 102 games (+12.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)