Athletics
Colorado Rockies
(-105/-115)-110
As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on April 5, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season, with the Rockies at 1-6 and the Athletics at 3-5. The Rockies are projected to start German Marquez, who has had a rocky start this season but is coming off an impressive performance, boasting a 0.00 ERA in his lone start. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP is 3.68 points higher than his ERA, indicating potential regression.
Marquez’s high flyball rate (39 FB%) could be problematic against a powerful Athletics lineup that ranks 9th in the league for home runs, with 12 already this season. On the other side, Oakland will send out JP Sears, who has a 2.70 ERA but also shows signs of luck, with his xERA at 3.51. Sears has a high strikeout rate (28.0 K%), which could play to his advantage against a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in the league for most strikeouts.
Despite their struggles, the Rockies’ bullpen ranks 10th in MLB, providing a glimmer of hope for late-game support. The projections suggest a close contest, with a game total set at 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for offensive fireworks. The Rockies’ implied team total is a solid 4.69 runs, while the Athletics are slightly ahead at 4.81 runs.
With both teams eager to turn their seasons around, this matchup could be a pivotal moment for one of them to gain momentum. The Rockies will need to capitalize on their home field advantage at Coors Field to secure a much-needed victory.
Athletics Insights
- JP Sears – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)JP Sears’s slider rate has risen by 16.8% from last year to this one (33.8% to 50.6%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Brent Rooker’s 16.9% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Athletics hitters as a unit rank among the elite in the league since the start of last season (7th-) as far as their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)In his previous GS, German Marquez turned in a great performance and allowed 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)In the past week, Kyle Farmer’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 78.9 mph to 64.1 mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The Colorado Rockies project for the 4th-most runs of all teams on the slate today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (-110)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 65 games at home (+8.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Athletics – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Athletics have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 away games (+5.40 Units / 82% ROI)