Explore Twins vs Guardians Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 4/30/25

Minnesota Twins

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Cleveland Guardians

On April 30, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field for the third game of their series. The Guardians are coming off a hard-fought victory against the Twins yesterday, winning 2-1. With a record of 16-13, the Guardians are having a solid season, especially considering their strong bullpen, which ranks as the 1st best in MLB. In contrast, the Twins sit at 13-17 and have struggled to find their rhythm this season.

Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz is projected to take the mound, despite his below-average performance, ranking 128th among starting pitchers. Ortiz has a 2-3 record and a troubling ERA of 5.96, but his 3.86 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs. However, Ortiz has struggled with walks, averaging 2.0 per outing, which could be problematic against a Twins lineup that, while struggling, can capitalize on free passes.

On the other side, Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez has been much more effective. With a 2-1 record and an excellent 2.08 ERA, Lopez ranks 29th among starting pitchers. His projections indicate he might pitch 5.8 innings and allow about 2.4 earned runs. Although his 3.38 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression, his recent form has been strong, particularly in his last start where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Both teams’ offenses have struggled, with the Guardians ranked 20th and the Twins 21st in MLB. With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can limit scoring opportunities. Betting markets indicate a close contest, but with the Guardians’ stronger overall performance and elite bullpen, they might have the edge in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pablo Lopez today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mickey Gasper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Mickey Gasper is penciled in 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins hitters collectively rank near the bottom of MLB this year ( 10th-worst) as it relates to their 89-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Luis L. Ortiz’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Jones can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  Nolan Jones has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)