Explore Tigers vs Cubs Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 8/22/24

Detroit Tigers

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight spot with identical records of 62-65. This Interleague matchup holds significance as both squads are looking to gain momentum after the Tigers bested the Cubs 8-2 in their last encounter on August 21. With the Cubs currently sitting at 3rd place in the National League Central and the Tigers at 4th in the American League Central, this game offers a chance for one team to claim a series victory.

The Cubs are projected to start Justin Steele, who is ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Despite a 3-5 record this season, Steele has shown flashes of brilliance with a solid 3.10 ERA. However, his 3.73 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate, suggesting that he could face challenges moving forward. Steele’s projection of 6.0 innings pitched with 2.1 earned runs allowed is solid, but his tendency to give up 5.1 hits and 1.3 walks per game raises red flags.

On the other side, the Tigers will send Tyler Holton to the mound. Holton’s projections are less encouraging, with an average of just 1.8 innings pitched and 0.8 earned runs allowed. His strikeout and hit projections are also concerning, which could spell trouble against a Cubs offense that, while ranked 21st in MLB, has shown some potential.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are favored with a high implied team total of 4.34 runs, reflecting confidence in their ability to bounce back after yesterday’s loss. The projections suggest the Cubs will score around 4.52 runs, while the Tigers are expected to manage only 3.57 runs, making this matchup one to watch for bettors looking to capitalize on the Cubs’ favorable odds.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jake Rogers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Jake Rogers is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Jace Jung, Jake Rogers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Generating 17.4 outs per start this year on average, Justin Steele places him the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Nico Hoerner’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 85.7-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 82.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 114 games (+11.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+7.10 Units / 32% ROI)