Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Astros – July 30th, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 30, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in the second game of their Interleague series. The Astros, currently holding a 55-51 record, are having an above-average season and sit in a favorable position as they eye a potential playoff spot. The Pirates, with a 54-52 record, are performing at an average level and need a boost to stay in contention.

Houston’s Hunter Brown, the #45 best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, will take the mound. Brown’s 9-6 record and 4.00 ERA suggest a solid season, though his 3.38 xERA indicates he’s been a bit unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while striking out 6.6 batters on average.

On the other side, Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter faces a tougher challenge. With a 4-7 record and a 4.08 ERA, Falter’s 4.72 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate and may regress. He projects to pitch 4.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and only striking out 3.0 batters on average. The low strikeout rate could be problematic against an Astros lineup that ranks 3rd in least strikeouts in MLB.

Offensively, the Astros hold a clear advantage. They rank 9th in overall offense, 2nd in team batting average, and 9th in home runs. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense struggles, ranking 28th overall, 26th in batting average, and 23rd in home runs. This disparity in offensive prowess could be decisive, especially against a low-strikeout pitcher like Falter.

The Astros’ bullpen, ranked 12th, also holds an edge over the Pirates’ 16th-ranked bullpen. With both teams vying for momentum in the playoff race, Houston appears to have the upper hand in this matchup, bolstered by their stronger pitching and more potent offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Bailey Falter’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.1 mph this season (91.2 mph) over where it was last season (90.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, Michael A. Taylor).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #6 HR venue among all major league parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Yordan Alvarez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 95.9-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 88 games (+12.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 97 games (+10.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games at home (+22.50 Units / 98% ROI)