Explore the Royals vs Yankees Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Monday, April 14, 2025

Kansas City Royals

@

New York Yankees

On April 14, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium for the first game of their series. The Yankees enter this matchup with an 8-7 record, enjoying an above-average season, while the Royals are slightly behind at 8-8, indicating an average start. In their last outings, the Yankees fell short against the Seattle Mariners, losing 5-4, while the Royals clinched a victory against the Toronto Blue Jays, winning 4-2.

This game features two right-handed pitchers: Carlos Carrasco for the Yankees and Seth Lugo for the Royals. Carrasco has struggled this season, ranking as the 296th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats and boasting a troubling ERA of 7.71. Despite projecting to pitch 4.9 innings today, Carrasco is likely to allow around 3.0 earned runs, further raising concerns for the Yankees. In contrast, Lugo has shown more promise, with an ERA of 3.24 and a solid performance in his previous start, where he went 6 innings with only 2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Yankees are firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in the league and 3rd in team batting average, reflecting their high potential to put runs on the board. With an implied team total of 4.82 runs for today’s game, their offense will look to take advantage of Carrasco’s struggles and the Royals’ less-than-stellar pitching.

Meanwhile, the Royals find themselves at the low end of the spectrum, ranking 29th in offensive production. Their best hitter has a decent batting average of .305 but faces a daunting challenge against a Yankees offense that can capitalize on any pitching weaknesses. Given the current trajectory of both teams, the Yankees appear to hold the upper hand in this matchup.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Seth Lugo has utilized his cut-fastball 6.8% more often this season (15%) than he did last season (8.2%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  In comparison to his 90.4-mph average last year, Maikel Garcia’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 95.1 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starters, Carlos Carrasco’s fastball velocity of 91.5 mph ranks in the 20th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme flyball bats like Aaron Judge tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Seth Lugo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 10.9% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 club in the game since the start of last season by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Ben Rice has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 46% ROI)