Boston Red Sox
Milwaukee Brewers
(-120/+100)+145
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on May 26, 2025, at American Family Field, both teams find themselves in the midst of a tight race in the standings. The Brewers currently sit at 26-28, struggling with a below-average season, while the Red Sox are slightly ahead at 27-28, maintaining an average performance. This matchup marks the first of the series between these two clubs.
In their last outing, the Brewers managed a solid performance, but they remain in the bottom tier of MLB in offense, ranking 25th overall. Their struggles are evident, particularly in home runs, where they rank 26th with just 45 dingers on the season. On the other hand, the Red Sox boast a much stronger offense, ranking 5th in the league, with a robust batting average and a solid home run tally.
On the mound, Chad Patrick is projected to start for the Brewers. Despite being ranked as the 180th best starting pitcher in MLB, which indicates a less favorable outlook, he has a decent ERA of 3.23 this season. However, his xFIP of 4.47 suggests he may be due for regression. Patrick’s projections indicate he will pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters.
In contrast, Garrett Crochet takes the mound for the Red Sox as an elite starter, ranked 8th overall. With an impressive ERA of 1.98 and a projection of only 1.8 earned runs allowed in 5.8 innings, he poses a significant challenge for the Brewers’ struggling offense. The Brewers will need to capitalize on Crochet’s tendency to induce ground balls, as their lack of power may not be as detrimental in this matchup.
As the game approaches, the Brewers are underdogs with a moneyline of +135, while the Red Sox are favored at -155. Given the projections and current form, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for the Brewers to upset the odds against a strong Red Sox lineup.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Garrett Crochet has used his four-seam fastball 11.3% less often this season (42.4%) than he did last year (53.7%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Chad Patrick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Chad Patrick’s 87-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 3rd percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Isaac Collins is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+145)The Milwaukee Brewers projected offense projects as the 4th-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 away games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+17.00 Units / 283% ROI)