Explore the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Cubs Team Stats and Insights – 4/11/2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Braxton Ashcraft (45.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Chicago’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under Total Bases
  Bryan Reynolds’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 16.3% to 25.8%.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under Total Bases
  Ryan O’Hearn has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Edward Cabrera has relied on his change-up 14.5% more often this year (40.1%) than he did last season (25.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under Total Bases
  Carson Kelly has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year’s 89-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)
  The Chicago Cubs projected offense grades out as the 3rd-best of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.