Explore the Game Breakdown: Athletics vs Giants Team Stats and Insights – 5/18/2025

Athletics

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San Francisco Giants

On May 18, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Oakland Athletics at Oracle Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Giants, currently enjoying a solid season with a record of 27-19, find themselves in a favorable position as they boast the best bullpen in baseball according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Athletics sit at 22-24, struggling to find their footing.

In their last outing, the Giants faced the Athletics and managed a clear victory, emphasizing their strengths as they push to maintain momentum. Justin Verlander is projected to take the mound for San Francisco, despite a winless record of 0-3 this season. His ERA, sitting at 4.31, is average, but he has struggled with walks, projecting to allow 1.7 per game. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.7 innings, but with a concerning average of 5.2 hits allowed.

Opposing Verlander will be Jeffrey Springs for Oakland, who has had a slightly better season at 5-3 with an ERA of 4.27. However, his xFIP of 5.09 indicates he may have been fortunate thus far. Springs is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs—below average—but his struggle with strikeouts (4.3 projected) could be problematic against a Giants offense that ranks 14th in the league.

The Giants have a high implied team total of 4.58 runs, which aligns with their strong offensive capabilities, while the Athletics are looking at a more modest 3.92 runs. Given the Giants’ strong bullpen and the Athletics’ below-average performance this season, this matchup favors San Francisco as they aim to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Jeffrey Springs is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball bats like Brent Rooker are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Athletics have been the 10th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Justin Verlander’s slider rate has spiked by 12.2% from last season to this one (19.3% to 31.5%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Willy Adames has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.7% seasonal rate to 35.7% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
  Luis Urias has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)