Explore the Game Breakdown: Athletics vs Giants Team Stats and Insights – 5/18/2025

Athletics

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on May 18, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, although for different reasons. The Giants, currently sitting at 27-19, are enjoying a solid season, while the Athletics are struggling at 22-24. The Giants are coming off a thrilling 1-0 win over the Athletics the previous day, showcasing their strong pitching and defense.

Justin Verlander is projected to take the mound for the Giants, despite his challenging season thus far, holding an 0-3 record and a 4.31 ERA. Verlander struggled in his last start on May 12, allowing 9 hits and 1 walk, but only gave up 2 earned runs. With the Athletics ranking 6th in the league for the fewest strikeouts, Verlander may face difficulties capitalizing on his strengths as a low-strikeout pitcher.

On the other side, Jeffrey Springs will start for the Athletics. With a 5-3 record and a 4.27 ERA, Springs has shown some resilience, particularly in his last outing where he went 7 innings allowing just 1 earned run. However, his 5.10 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of performance moving forward.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th overall, but their batting average sits at a troubling 21st, indicating room for improvement. Meanwhile, the Athletics boast a 12th overall ranking in offense and a solid 9th in team batting average. This matchup could hinge on whether the Giants’ potent bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, can maintain a lead if Verlander falters early.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, and the Giants favored to win with an implied team total of 4.89 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how each pitcher performs today, especially given the Giants’ recent success in tight games.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Jeffrey Springs is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jhonny Pereda – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Jhonny Pereda usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Athletics have been the 10th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Justin Verlander’s slider rate has spiked by 12.2% from last season to this one (19.3% to 31.5%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Christian Koss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Over the last week, Christian Koss’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Max Schuemann – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-8000)
  Max Schuemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)