Milwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+100
On July 6, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be an engaging matchup. The Brewers, currently sitting at 49-40, are having a solid season and look to build on their recent success. In their last game against the Marlins, the Brewers secured a victory, showcasing their offensive depth and resilience. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling with a record of 40-47, marking a below-average campaign thus far.
The game features a pitching duel between Edward Cabrera and Brandon Woodruff. Cabrera, ranked 95th among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, has had an average year, with a 3-2 record and a strong ERA of 3.41. However, his 3.92 SIERA suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and his high walk rate (10.0 BB%) could prove problematic against a patient Brewers offense that ranks 6th in MLB for walks.
On the other hand, Woodruff, positioned at 51st in the Power Rankings, boasts a solid 4.14 ERA this season and projects to perform well against a Marlins offense that ranks 16th overall. Despite the Marlins being 10th in batting average, their struggles with home runs (26th in MLB) could limit their scoring potential. The projections indicate an average game total of 8.0 runs, but with both pitchers capable of keeping runs in check, it could be a low-scoring affair.
Given the current odds, the Marlins have an implied team total of 3.86 runs, while the Brewers sit at 4.14 runs. With the stakes high for the Brewers as they seek to maintain their standing, this matchup will be one to watch closely.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Brandon Woodruff in the 79th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Jake Bauers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 15.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #30 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Edward Cabrera’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 91st percentile out of all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Kyle Stowers has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 98.6-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-165)The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 51 games (+13.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 85 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-185)Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 56% ROI)