Explore the Angels vs Astros Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Friday, September 20, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

@

Houston Astros

As the Los Angeles Angels travel to Minute Maid Park to face the Houston Astros on September 20, 2024, the stakes are notably different for these American League West rivals. The Astros are having an above-average season with an 83-70 record, while the Angels languish at 62-91, enduring a challenging year. Houston aims to solidify its postseason positioning, while the Angels are simply looking to play spoiler in this matchup.

Houston will send Justin Verlander to the mound, who, despite an unlucky season reflected in his 5.20 ERA, shows promise with a 4.01 xERA. The veteran right-hander projects to manage around 5.9 innings with 6.4 strikeouts and limits walks, a potential advantage against the Angels’ struggling offense, ranked 27th overall. Verlander’s task is lightened by the Angels’ poor performance at the plate, ranking 28th in team batting average.

On the opposite side, Tyler Anderson gets the nod for the Angels. The lefty boasts a solid 3.60 ERA this season but has been fortunate, as his 4.82 xFIP suggests. Facing a robust Astros lineup, which ranks 3rd in team batting average, Anderson could face difficulties. With projections placing him at 5.3 innings and 3.9 strikeouts, he might struggle against Houston’s disciplined hitters, who are tough to strike out and walk less frequently than most teams.

Houston enters this game as a clear favorite, with both the betting market and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favoring them significantly. While the Astros are projected to score 5.09 runs, the Angels are expected to manage just 3.90. Given these dynamics, the smart money might find value in betting on the underdog Angels, as projections suggest their win probability is slightly undervalued in the market.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Brandon Drury is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Among all SPs, Justin Verlander’s fastball spin rate of 2395 rpm is in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 78.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 152 games (+20.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 83 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+15.55 Units / 27% ROI)