Explore Rockies vs Rays Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 3/30/25

Colorado Rockies

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies face off on March 30, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams find themselves with average starts to the season, each holding a 1-1 record. The Rays are coming off a tough 2-1 loss against the Rockies the previous day, a game that showcased the struggles of their offense, which ranks 29th in MLB this season. Despite this setback, Tampa Bay remains a betting favorite with a strong moneyline of -200, reflecting a projected team total of 4.64 runs.

Scheduled to take the mound for the Rays is Taj Bradley, who is regarded as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Bradley’s recent performance was impressive, pitching six innings of one-hit ball with no earned runs and seven strikeouts in his last outing. He projects to go approximately 5.4 innings today, allowing an average of just 2.0 earned runs, enhancing the Rays’ chances against a Rockies offense that struggles overall.

Ryan Feltner, starting for the Rockies, has faced challenges early in the season, ranking among the lower tier of starting pitchers in MLB. Though he pitched well in his last start, going six innings with no earned runs, his projections show he may struggle today, averaging just 4.8 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed. This could be crucial against a Rays lineup that, despite being underwhelming overall, features a standout player performing well early in the season.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, expected pitching matchups suggest it could tilt in favor of the Rays, especially considering their strong bullpen ranking 8th in MLB, compared to Colorado’s 6th. This matchup could offer an interesting dynamic for bettors, as Tampa Bay’s implied team total suggests they could capitalize on Feltner’s vulnerabilities.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Feltner to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Grading out in the 1st percentile for Sprint Speed at 23.95 ft/sec since the start of last season, Jacob Stallings is not very fast.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Taj Bradley has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged matching up with 6 same-handed hitters in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Jonathan Aranda has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 25.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 37.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 84 of their last 143 games (+21.01 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 15 away games (+5.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+4.75 Units / 23% ROI)