Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
(-120/+100)-145
The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox will face off at Yankee Stadium on August 21, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an exciting American League East matchup. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with the Yankees holding a record of 69-57 and the Red Sox at 68-59. It’s a critical juncture in the season as both teams aim to solidify their positions and build momentum heading into the final stretch.
In their last game, the Yankees secured a 6-4 victory over their rivals, while the Red Sox fell short with a 4-3 loss. This game marks the start of a series between these two storied franchises, which only adds to the competitive atmosphere.
Luis Gil is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. Although he has had a mixed season, his recent performance shows promise; in his last start on August 15, he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run with 4 strikeouts. However, his overall ERA of 5.14 raises concerns, especially against a potent Red Sox offense that ranks 6th in MLB.
On the other side, Lucas Giolito will start for Boston. While Giolito has a solid record of 8-2 this season, his advanced statistics suggest he may be due for a downturn. His ERA stands at 3.63, but projections indicate he has been somewhat lucky this year. Given that Giolito is a high-flyball pitcher facing the Yankees’ powerful lineup—ranked 1st in MLB with 209 home runs—the matchup could heavily favor New York.
The Yankees are currently favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities and the projections that suggest they could score 4.60 runs. With both teams looking to capitalize on their opportunities, fans can expect a thrilling game filled with intensity and strategic plays.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)With a 1.44 gap between Lucas Giolito’s 7.34 K/9 and his 8.78 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to positively regress in future games.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Alex Bregman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Luis Gil – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Luis Gil’s 95.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.2-mph drop off from last season’s 96.7-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-145)The best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-165)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 109 games (+10.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)