Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
(-115/-105)+100
As the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet for the second game of their series on May 6, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their struggles this season. Currently, the Cardinals sit at 17-19, while the Pirates are even worse at 12-24. The Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has been performing decently with a 3.44 ERA, but has faced some misfortune, as indicated by his 2.91 xFIP. Meanwhile, the Pirates will counter with elite right-hander Paul Skenes, who boasts a stellar 2.74 ERA and ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB.
In their last outing on May 5, the Cardinals managed a 6-3 victory, while the Pirates fell to the same score, continuing their dismal season. The Cardinals’ offense has ranked as the 9th best in MLB, with a particularly impressive 2nd best batting average, suggesting they have the talent to produce runs, even if their record doesn’t reflect it. On the other hand, the Pirates’ offense is struggling significantly, ranking 26th overall and 27th in batting average.
The projections indicate that Liberatore will pitch an average of 5.4 innings and allow around 2.3 earned runs, while Skenes is expected to go 6.0 innings with an elite projection of 2.0 earned runs. Given the Cardinals’ offensive capabilities and the Pirates’ weak lineup, this matchup could favor St. Louis, especially considering that Liberatore’s groundball tendencies align with the Pirates’ lack of power, which could neutralize any potential threats.
With a game total set at a low 7.0 runs, the betting markets are anticipating a close contest. However, the Cardinals’ offensive prowess may give them the edge they need to secure another victory and build on their recent success.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)When assessing his strikeout skill, Paul Skenes projects as the 10th-best SP in MLB currently, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Liover Peguero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Extreme groundball batters like Liover Peguero tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Checking in at the 92nd percentile, Matthew Liberatore has compiled a 4.71 K/BB rate since the start of last season.Explain: K/BB rate is one of the best measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness in a given season, regardless of his ERA (which is prone to extreme randomness and luck).
- Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The St. Louis Cardinals (18.8 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Andrew McCutchen has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)