Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
(+100/-120)-135
As the Los Angeles Angels host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 23, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their respective performances from the previous day. The Angels suffered a 9-3 defeat, while the Pirates celebrated a similar scoreline in their favor, marking a significant win. This matchup is particularly intriguing as both teams have struggled throughout the season, with the Angels holding an 11-11 record and the Pirates lagging at 9-15.
Projected starters Jack Kochanowicz and Andrew Heaney present a stark contrast on the mound. Kochanowicz, who has struggled with a 6.20 ERA this season, is ranked as the 230th best starting pitcher in MLB. His performance metrics suggest that he has faced some misfortune, but his ability to limit strikeouts (11.2 K%) could be tested against a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts. On the other hand, Heaney has dazzled with a remarkable 2.13 ERA and has been solid in his last start, pitching 7 innings of shutout baseball with 4 strikeouts.
Offensively, the Angels rank 22nd overall, but they do boast a powerful home run presence, sitting 5th in MLB, which could prove crucial. The projections indicate that the Angels are expected to score around 4.71 runs, while the Pirates are projected for 4.29 runs. With both bullpens performing at opposite ends of the spectrum—Los Angeles ranking 5th and Pittsburgh at 24th—late-game execution could tip the balance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Jack Kochanowicz has used his sinker 21.2% less often this year (51.2%) than he did last season (72.4%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Mike Trout has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 105-mph in the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Los Angeles Angels (24.1% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+140/-180)Nolan Schanuel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.70 Units / 52% ROI)