Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Phillies vs Yankees – July 25, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on July 25, 2025, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Yankees sitting at 56-46 and the Phillies at 58-44. The Yankees currently rank 1st in MLB in offensive production, showcasing their power with the 1st most home runs and 5th best batting average. Meanwhile, the Phillies also boast a strong offense, ranking 8th overall in MLB.

In their most recent outings, both teams faced tough losses, with the Yankees falling 8-4 and the Phillies losing a nail-biter 9-8. For the Yankees, Will Warren is set to take the mound. Despite being ranked the 98th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Warren’s performance has been inconsistent, highlighted by a rough outing on July 19, where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 4 innings. His 4.91 ERA is below average, but his 3.54 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement.

On the other hand, Taijuan Walker, projected to start for the Phillies, has struggled as one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season. His 3.75 ERA is misleading, as his 4.36 xFIP suggests he may regress moving forward. Walker has also shown vulnerability, allowing 9 hits and 3 earned runs in his last start.

With the Yankees favored at -155 and an implied team total of 5.76 runs, they are expected to capitalize on Walker’s weaknesses. The Game Total is set at a high 10.5 runs, reflecting the potential for offensive fireworks. As both teams look to bounce back from tough losses, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash at Yankee Stadium.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Taijuan Walker’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (71.2% vs. 59.8% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  As it relates to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck this year. His 45.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 34.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Among all starters, Will Warren’s fastball spin rate of 2573 rpm ranks in the 100th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-165)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order profiles as the strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+13.71 Units / 18% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+18.25 Units / 34% ROI)