Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Braves vs Reds – August 2, 2025

Atlanta Braves

@

Cincinnati Reds

On August 2, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves at Bristol Motor Speedway in a matchup that could have implications for both teams as they look to build momentum. The Reds enter the game with a record of 58-53, riding the wave of a recent victory over the Braves in a close contest, finishing 3-2. On the other hand, the Braves are struggling at 46-63, having lost their last outing against the Reds, marking another notch in what has been a tough season for them.

Cincinnati’s Chase Burns is projected to take the mound against Spencer Strider for Atlanta. While both are right-handed pitchers with strong rankings—Burns at 22nd and Strider at 27th in MLB—Burns has had a challenging season thus far, with a Win/Loss record of 0-3 and a troubling ERA of 6.26. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, as his 2.54 xFIP points to better performances ahead. Conversely, Strider showcases a more favorable ERA of 3.71 and has shown flashes of talent, but he too has struggled with control, giving up an average of 1.9 walks per game.

The Reds offense has been average overall, ranking 14th in MLB, but their best hitter is heating up, boasting a .283 batting average and a solid OPS of .848. In contrast, the Braves’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 20th in MLB, and they are particularly poor at drawing walks, which could be an issue against Burns, who is known for his high walk rate.

With the projections favoring a close game, with the Reds sitting at +100 and the Braves at -120 on the moneyline, this matchup promises to be competitive, though Cincinnati appears to have the edge given the current trajectories of both teams.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Spencer Strider has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 3.3 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Harris II has experienced some negative variance given the .055 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Atlanta Braves have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Sean Murphy, Austin Riley, Jarred Kelenic).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  The Atlanta Braves have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Chase Burns in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Over the past week, Will Benson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 84 games (+20.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Austin Hays has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)