Explore D-Backs vs Brewers Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 8/26/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

On August 26, 2025, a compelling matchup awaits as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field. The Brewers continue to demonstrate their strength this season with an impressive 82-50 record, sitting firmly in the playoff picture, while the Diamondbacks are struggling at 64-68, unable to find consistent success. In their last encounter, the Brewers edged out the Diamondbacks with a tight 7-5 victory, extending their winning momentum.

Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski is expected to take the mound, boasting a 4-2 record this year and currently ranked as the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating an above-average performance for a rookie. While his ERA sits at 4.19, his 3.12 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky, with projections indicating he could outperform his current numbers. However, he faces a challenge against the Diamondbacks’ offense, which ranks as the 4th best in MLB, making for an intriguing clash between a patient lineup and a high-walk pitcher.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt starts for Arizona, carrying a 12-8 record but with an ERA of 4.95 that places him below average. He performed admirably in his last outing, pitching 7 innings while allowing 2 earned runs. However, he may struggle against the Brewers’ offense, which ranks 11th overall and excels with a .269 batting average, showcasing their overall talent. The Brewers also rank 3rd in batting average, providing them with an edge today.

Betting lines favor the Brewers as significant favorites with a moneyline of -175, while projections suggest they could put up an impressive 4.53 runs. This matchup gives Milwaukee a strategic advantage, as their strong hitting may exploit Arizona’s inconsistent pitching.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+150)
  Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Geraldo Perdomo has had positive variance on his side given the .054 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .313.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Jacob Misiorowski has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -12.5 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Blake Perkins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Over the past two weeks, Blake Perkins’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-175)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 127 games (+30.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 108 games (+13.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)