Explore Blue Jays vs Yankees Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 8/3/24

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will look to bounce back after a disappointing 8-5 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on August 2, 2024. Currently sitting at 65-46, the Yankees are enjoying a strong season and rank 1st in MLB in offensive production. They face a Blue Jays squad that has struggled with a 51-59 record, placing them 19th in overall offensive performance.

Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. Despite an ERA of 4.34, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his lower 3.83 SIERA. Rodon has shown promise, averaging 6.1 strikeouts per game, but he will need to improve on allowing 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks per game to effectively contain the Blue Jays’ lineup.

Jose Berrios will start for the Blue Jays, bringing a solid 3.93 ERA but a concerning 4.55 xFIP, which suggests he may be due for a downturn. Berrios has been effective in his last outing, allowing just 1 earned run over 7 innings, but his below-average strikeout rate of 4.3 could present opportunities for the Yankees’ powerful hitters, particularly Aaron Judge, who has been on fire recently.

The Yankees are favored heavily, with a current moneyline of -225 and projections indicating they could score around 6.04 runs in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are projected to score approximately 4.47 runs. Given the Yankees’ offensive firepower and Rodon’s potential to outperform his recent stats, this matchup presents a favorable opportunity for New York to even the series.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  This year, Jose Berrios has added a new pitch to his pitch mix (a slider), working it in on 30% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme groundball batters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Davis Schneider pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Out of all SPs, Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph is in the 79th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-235)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order projects as the best on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 55 games (+21.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 55 games (+20.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+160/-210)
  Ben Rice has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 25% ROI)