Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Rockies vs Padres – September 13, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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San Diego Padres

On September 13, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres, sitting at 80-68, are having an above-average season and are firmly in the playoff conversation. In contrast, the Rockies have struggled, posting a dismal 41-107 record. In their last matchup, the Padres secured a victory, showcasing their strength as they look to build momentum.

San Diego’s projected starter, Dylan Cease, has been a bright spot for the team this year, ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite a 7-11 record and a 4.71 ERA, his 3.58 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could improve. Cease is a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a 30.0% strikeout rate, which aligns well against the Rockies’ offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts.

On the other hand, Colorado will send out Bradley Blalock, who has struggled significantly this season with an 8.62 ERA and a low strikeout rate of just 10.1%. His projected performance is concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs and 5.5 hits on average. This could play into the Padres’ hands, especially given their offense ranks 10th in batting average and is expected to capitalize on Blalock’s shortcomings.

The Padres are heavy betting favorites with a moneyline of -350 and an implied team total of 5.50 runs. With the Rockies’ offensive struggles and a subpar bullpen ranked 25th, this matchup heavily favors San Diego, making them a strong pick to continue their winning ways.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bradley Blalock is projected to throw 81 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  San Diego’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Mickey Moniak, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .300 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup considerably a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Dylan Cease will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 7 opposing hitters in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Ryan O’Hearn is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 146 games (+16.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 71 away games (+18.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-135/+105)
  Dylan Cease has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.75 Units / 43% ROI)