Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Marlins vs Twins – September 26, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins face off at Target Field on September 26, 2024, the two teams find themselves on opposite ends of the standings spectrum. The Twins, sporting a record of 82-76, are having an above-average season and remain in contention for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with a dismal 58-100 record, have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

In their last game, the Twins came out on top, showcasing their superior offense, which ranks 11th best in MLB. This offense will look to capitalize on the Marlins’ struggling pitching staff, which is ranked 29th in the league. On the mound, the Twins will start David Festa, who, despite a challenging 2-6 win/loss record and a 4.80 ERA, ranks as the 83rd best pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. His 3.56 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky this season and could outperform his ERA.

Valente Bellozo takes the mound for Miami. Despite a respectable 3.82 ERA, his 5.44 xFIP indicates he has been fortunate, and his projections are not favorable for this matchup. The Marlins’ offense, ranked 29th overall, will need a significant boost from Jake Burger, who has been red-hot over the last week with a .333 batting average and three home runs.

The betting odds heavily favor the Twins, who are projected to score a high 5.13 runs according to implied team totals. With both starting pitchers projected to pitch less than five innings, the bullpens could play a pivotal role. However, with the Marlins’ bullpen also ranking poorly at 29th, the Twins appear to have a decisive edge in this interleague matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given his large reverse platoon split, Valente Bellozo encounters a tough challenge going up against 6 bats in the projected lineup who share his handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Over the last week, Kyle Stowers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  David Festa’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2411 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2345 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trevor Larnach can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 70 away games (+15.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 16 games (+15.00 Units / 94% ROI)