Expert Player Predictions for Astros vs Red Sox – Friday, August 09, 2024

Houston Astros

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face off against the Houston Astros on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves having above-average seasons, with records of 61-52 and 59-55, respectively. The series opener at Fenway Park carries significance, as each team looks to gain early momentum. The Red Sox offense ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, showcasing their potent lineup, while the Astros sit at 11th, indicating a more average performance at the plate this season.

In their last outings, the Red Sox suffered a disappointing 8-4 defeat to the Kansas City Royals, while the Astros emerged victorious against the Texas Rangers with a 6-4 win. Notably, Tanner Houck, projected to start for the Red Sox, struggled in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings. Conversely, Astros pitcher Ronel Blanco pitched effectively, giving up just 2 earned runs and racking up 7 strikeouts in 5 innings.

Looking at the pitching matchups, Tanner Houck, rated as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, has a solid 3.09 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for regression, specifically with a higher xERA of 3.96. On the other hand, Ronel Blanco’s strong 2.98 ERA belies underlying concerns, as his xFIP of 4.18 indicates he might not maintain this level of performance.

The leading MLB projection system suggests the Red Sox as favorites with a projected win probability of 58%, hinting at their offensive firepower and Houck’s potential bounce-back. With an implied team total of 5.29 runs, the Red Sox are expected to capitalize on their strong lineup against a struggling Blanco. Expect an exciting opener as these two clubs clash in a pivotal matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ronel Blanco’s 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph drop off from last year’s 93.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Altuve has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 20.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Tanner Houck has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 5.6 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Wilyer Abreu has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.7-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 74 games (+16.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 99 games (+14.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-185)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.75 Units / 44% ROI)