Expert Player Predictions for Astros vs Athletics – Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Houston Astros

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Athletics

On September 24, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup in the American League West. The Athletics are struggling this season with a record of 74-83, while the Astros are performing well at 84-73. In their last encounter, the Astros edged out the Athletics in a tight game, further complicating Oakland’s hopes for a strong finish.

Luis Severino is projected to take the mound for Oakland. Despite his average ERA of 4.72, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky this season, as his 4.20 FIP indicates better days could be ahead. However, Severino’s struggles are evident, as he has allowed an average of 3.1 earned runs over 5.6 innings, coupled with a concerning average of 6.1 hits allowed. This could be problematic against a Houston lineup that, while ranking 14th overall, has the potential to capitalize on any mistakes.

On the other side, Houston will counter with Hunter Brown, who has been exceptional this season, boasting a stellar 2.30 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 19th among MLB starters. Brown’s ability to induce ground balls (47% GB rate) may serve him well against a powerful Athletics offense that ranks 6th in home runs but has struggled with consistency.

The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting the potential for scoring. Given the Athletics’ strong offensive metrics, including a 7th overall ranking, they could surprise. However, with the Astros favored at -145 and an implied total of 4.85 runs, the odds favor Houston, making this matchup one to watch for both fans and bettors alike.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Hunter Brown’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (60.1 vs. 53% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Sacramento’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Isaac Paredes, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (47.1% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+115)
  Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Athletics.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Athletics have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.8° figure is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#1 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (+115)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 89 games (+14.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 93 of their last 157 games (+20.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Zach Cole Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)
  Zach Cole Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 103% ROI)