Colorado Rockies
Chicago Cubs
(-115/-105)-315
On May 27, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley Field for the second game of their series following the Cubs’ victory yesterday, where they defeated the Rockies 3-1. With the Cubs enjoying a solid season at 33-21, they stand as heavy favorites against the struggling Rockies, who sit at a dismal 9-45.
Cubs’ starter Cade Horton, projected to take the mound, has shown promise this season with a 2-0 record and an ERA of 4.40. While his ERA suggests he has been somewhat lucky, his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.39 indicates he could be due for better outings ahead. Horton’s strengths lie in limiting earned runs, as he projects to allow just 1.6 earned runs today. Facing a Rockies offense ranked 28th overall and 30th in batting average, he could capitalize on their struggles.
On the other hand, German Marquez, the Rockies’ starter, has been having a rough season with a 1-7 record and an ERA of 7.66. While he pitched well in his last outing and went 7 innings with only 1 earned run, the projections suggest he may not maintain that level of success today. Marquez projects to allow 2.5 earned runs and 5.2 hits, which could further exacerbate the Rockies’ woes.
The Cubs boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, which should pose a significant challenge for Marquez. With a low game total of 7.0 runs and the Cubs holding an implied team total of 4.45 runs, the odds heavily favor Chicago to continue their winning ways against Colorado.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to score the least runs (2.87 on average) of all teams on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Chicago Cubs in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .330, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .341 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+135/-175)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 21% ROI)