Expert Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs Giants – Wednesday July 30th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

San Francisco Giants

The Pittsburgh Pirates will head to Oracle Park to face off against the San Francisco Giants on July 30, 2025, in the third game of their series. This matchup is pivotal for the Giants, who currently sit at .500 with a 54-54 record, while the Pirates struggle at 46-62. The Giants are not in contention for their division, and the pressure mounts as they seek to turn around a disappointing series after losing the previous game 3-1.

Projected starters for this matchup include Logan Webb for the Giants and Michael Burrows for the Pirates. Webb stands out as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a 3.38 ERA and an impressive 2.72 xFIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Despite a tough outing on July 25, where he allowed 6 earned runs over 4 innings, Webb has generally performed well and is expected to project around 6.4 innings while allowing only 1.9 earned runs today. His ability to induce ground balls (52% GB%) could play to his advantage against a Pirates lineup that has hit the fewest home runs in baseball this season.

Conversely, Michael Burrows has struggled in comparison, with a 4.15 ERA and only 11 starts to his name. His performance has been below average, and he projects to pitch only 4.3 innings today, which doesn’t bode well for the Pirates given their 30th ranking in offensive production. The Giants, despite their underwhelming 24th best offense, are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -205, suggesting a probability of winning that may not fully reflect their potential, particularly given Webb’s elite status on the mound.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, along with the Giants’ strong bullpen ranked 4th, this matchup could give San Francisco the edge they need to bounce back and find some momentum moving forward.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+175)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Henry Davis has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Considering that flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball bats, Logan Webb and his 54.5% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today’s game squaring off against 2 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Rafael Devers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 95 games (+20.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 30% ROI)