Expert Picks and Betting Line for Guardians vs Reds – Sunday May 18th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Cleveland Guardians on May 18, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this tightly contested series. The Reds, currently sitting at 23-24, are having an average season, while the Guardians boast a better record at 25-20, reflecting their strong performance thus far. In their last outing, the Reds managed to secure a win against the Guardians, which adds an extra layer of intensity to today’s matchup.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Andrew Abbott, who has been a bright spot in their rotation with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.10 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as his 3.70 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season. Abbott’s ability to limit earned runs could be challenged by the Guardians, who, despite ranking just 20th in overall offense, have shown potential, particularly with their power hitting, ranking 11th in home runs.

Luis Ortiz takes the hill for the Guardians, bringing an average ERA of 4.78. While he has struggled with a 2-4 record, Ortiz is a high-strikeout pitcher, which may play to his advantage against a Reds offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts. Ortiz’s 3.89 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, hinting at a possible turnaround.

The Reds’ lineup features a solid hitter currently performing well, boasting a .389 batting average over the last week, while the Guardians’ best hitter has also been productive with a .333 average. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, oddsmakers expect a competitive game, and the Reds’ -130 moneyline reflects their slight edge in this matchup. Given the projections, the Reds could outperform expectations today, especially if Abbott can maintain his form against a struggling Guardians offense.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis L. Ortiz has gone to his non-fastballs 10.2% more often this season (56.3%) than he did last season (46.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jose Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Andrew Abbott’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2133 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2200 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Matt McLain is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+4.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Austin Hedges – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+210/-285)
  Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)