Expert Picks and Betting Line for Astros vs Braves – Friday September 12th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Atlanta Braves

On September 12, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Houston Astros at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are coming off disappointing performances, with the Braves losing their last game 3-2 and the Astros being shut out 6-0. The Braves currently sit at 65-81, struggling all season, while the Astros boast a solid 79-68 record.

The Braves will send Hurston Waldrep to the mound, who has been surprisingly effective this season with a 4-0 record and an impressive 1.33 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as his 3.85 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit fortunate. Waldrep’s last outing on September 6, where he allowed 2 earned runs over 5 innings, showcased his potential despite the team’s struggles.

On the other hand, Jayden Murray, projected to start for the Astros, has yet to start a game this season and has a 0.00 ERA in limited appearances. However, his 4.91 xFIP raises concerns about his sustainability, as he projects to pitch only 2.8 innings today, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs.

From an offensive standpoint, the Braves rank 16th in MLB, with their best hitter showing signs of life recently, posting a .368 batting average over the past week. Conversely, the Astros rank 13th overall, with their best hitter also performing well lately, hitting .308 in the same timeframe.

Betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Braves holding a moneyline of -130 and an implied team total of 4.71 runs. Given the projections, Atlanta may have more upside in this matchup, especially if Waldrep can continue to defy expectations against an Astros lineup that has been inconsistent.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jayden Murray – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jayden Murray to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Christian Walker is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  In today’s matchup, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Hurston Waldrep – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Hurston Waldrep has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged squaring off against 6 same-handed hitters in this outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Matt Olson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 97-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-135)
  The Atlanta Braves projected lineup ranks as the 5th-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 134 games (+19.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 32% ROI)