Examine the Phillies vs Brewers Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies prepare for their matchup on September 18, both teams are in the thick of the playoff race. The Phillies, with a record of 91-60, are having an outstanding season, while the Brewers are not far behind with an 87-64 record. This National League showdown at American Family Field is crucial as both teams look to bolster their postseason positioning.

In their previous encounter on September 17, the Phillies came out on top with a 5-1 victory over the Brewers. Philadelphia’s win was fueled by a strong offensive performance, while Milwaukee struggled to find their rhythm at the plate. The Phillies’ offense, ranked 4th-best in MLB, is a potent force, particularly with Kyle Schwarber leading the charge. Schwarber has recorded 35 home runs this season, contributing to an impressive 0.858 OPS.

On the mound, Milwaukee will rely on Freddy Peralta, ranked as the 29th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his struggles in his last start, Peralta has a solid 3.75 ERA this season. He faces off against Aaron Nola, who had a rough outing allowing six earned runs in his previous start. Nola, ranked 38th, carries a 3.62 ERA and will aim to bounce back against a Brewers offense that ranks 8th in batting average and 3rd in stolen bases.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Milwaukee holds a slight edge with a 54% win probability. The projections also suggest a modest scoring affair, with both teams expected to score around four runs each. As the series continues, expect a competitive game with both teams vying for momentum heading into the postseason.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Aaron Nola has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 5.5 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kyle Schwarber has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 14.9% seasonal rate to 30% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s matchup, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.6% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Freddy Peralta has relied on his curveball 5.9% less often this year (6.6%) than he did last season (12.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 85.5-mph average last season has fallen off to 83.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 69% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+18.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Trea Turner has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 21 away games (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)