Dodgers vs Phillies Game Highlights – Friday, April 4, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Philadelphia Phillies

On April 4, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an exciting first matchup of the series between two of the National League’s top teams. Both teams are enjoying strong starts to the season, with the Phillies sitting at 5-1 and the Dodgers boasting a perfect 8-0 record. The Phillies have been particularly impressive at the plate, ranking 3rd in MLB in offense and leading the league in batting average, although they struggle with home runs, ranking 19th.

Jesus Luzardo is projected to take the mound for Philadelphia. Despite having a solid Win/Loss record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.60, Luzardo has shown some signs of being unlucky as indicated by his 1.00 xFIP, suggesting an improvement could be on the horizon. Luzardo’s groundball-heavy approach (56% GB rate) could mitigate the Dodgers’ power, as they have smacked 18 home runs already this season.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, projected to pitch for Los Angeles, comes off an impressive start to the year, holding an elite status with a Rank of 8th among starting pitchers in MLB, an ERA of 2.70, and a solid 1.79 xFIP. The Dodgers’ offense excels in power with a 3rd ranking in home runs, which could pose a challenge for Luzardo if they manage to elevate the ball.

Betting lines favor the Dodgers with a moneyline of -140, but the projections suggest that the Phillies could perform better than their implied team total of 3.73 runs. As the season continues to unfold, both teams will be eager to assert their dominance in this crucial early-season matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Miguel Rojas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Considering that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Jesus Luzardo (36% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Bryce Harper has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 113 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 94 games (+27.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)