Dodgers vs Mets Game Highlights – Friday, May 23, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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New York Mets

On May 23, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field in what promises to be a captivating matchup between two of the National League’s top teams. Both squads are having strong seasons, with the Mets sitting at 30-20 and the Dodgers slightly ahead at 31-19. The excitement is amplified by the fact that the Mets recently won their last game against the Dodgers by a score of 5-1 on May 21, while Los Angeles is coming off a victory of their own, winning 3-1 the same day.

Griffin Canning is expected to take the mound for the Mets. Despite being ranked 139th among MLB starting pitchers, his performance this season has been solid, boasting a 5-1 record and an impressive 2.47 ERA. However, his 3.38 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and projections indicate he could struggle against the Dodgers’ powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB. The Dodgers have tallied 81 home runs this season, showcasing their ability to capitalize on mistakes.

On the other hand, Clayton Kershaw, projected to start for Los Angeles, has had a rough outing this season, with an ERA of 11.25 after just one start. However, his 6.14 xFIP indicates he has been unfortunate and may improve moving forward. The Mets’ offense, while ranked 9th overall, is average in batting average and home runs, but they have been consistent.

The betting markets have set the Mets’ moneyline at -115, reflecting a slight edge in this matchup. Despite some recent offensive struggles, the Mets have the projection of being able to exploit Kershaw’s recent form, making this contest intriguing for bettors looking to capitalize on a potential upset. The Game Total is pegged at 8.5 runs, marking this as a matchup where runs could come at a premium.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all SPs, Clayton Kershaw’s fastball velocity of 89.8 mph is in the 7th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Tommy Edman is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+100)
  The best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Griffin Canning (43.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 4 FB hitters in Los Angeles’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Tyrone Taylor has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph dropping to 80-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)
  Andy Pages has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+11.50 Units / 164% ROI)