Los Angeles Dodgers
@
San Francisco Giants
-155O/U: 7
(-110/-110)+135
(-110/-110)+135
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Tyler Glasnow has relied on his curveball 8.1% more often this season (30%) than he did last year (21.9%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)From last season to this one, Shohei Ohtani’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 100.7 mph to 97.6 mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The underlying talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order today (.342 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .366 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Out of all starting pitchers, Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate of 2108.1 rpm ranks in the 13th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- The 6.9% Barrel% of the San Francisco Giants ranks them as the #28 team in the league this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+135)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 21 away games (+4.05 Units / 11% ROI)