Dodgers vs Brewers Betting Guide and Expert Picks August 15th, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Milwaukee Brewers

On August 15, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field in what promises to be a thrilling matchup in the National League. The Brewers are currently holding a record of 68-52, while the Dodgers are riding high at 71-50. Both teams are in solid playoff contention as they vie for crucial wins in the latter part of the season. In their previous game on August 14, the Brewers edged out the Dodgers with a close 5-4 victory, adding to the intrigue of this series.

Tobias Myers, projected to start for the Brewers, has had an interesting season. While his ERA sits at an impressive 2.79, his underlying metrics suggest he could be due for a regression, as his xFIP is 1.22 points higher. Despite this, he pitched exceptionally well in his last outing, tossing seven scoreless innings. However, he will be facing a Dodgers lineup that ranks 5th overall in MLB offensive performance and boasts considerable power, ranking 3rd in home runs.

On the other mound, Jack Flaherty brings a solid pedigree with a 2.97 ERA and a strong strikeout rate, having fanned 10 batters in his last start. The projections indicate that the Dodgers might have the edge in this matchup, projecting them to score around 4.86 runs compared to the Brewers’ low average of 3.80 runs.

With both teams having strong offensive talents—like the Brewers’ Willy Adames and the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani—this game is set to be pivotal as teams prepare for the final stretch of the season. As such, the momentum from the Brewers’ recent win could provide them with just enough confidence to challenge the odds.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jack Flaherty has gone to his slider 6.5% more often this season (31.3%) than he did last year (24.8%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Andy Pages, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jason Heyward pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 96 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 57% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)