Dodgers vs Braves Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday September 15, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive series. The Dodgers currently hold a strong record of 87-61, while the Braves sit at 81-67, indicating a solid season for both squads. With the Dodgers locked in a battle for positioning in the playoffs, this matchup carries significance.

In their last game, the Braves fell short against the Dodgers, and now they aim to bounce back at Truist Park. The Braves are projected to start Charlie Morton, who has had an up-and-down season with an 8-8 record and a 4.11 ERA. Despite being ranked as an average pitcher, Morton has a high groundball rate of 48%, which could play to his advantage against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has belted 196 home runs this season, ranking 3rd in MLB.

Walker Buehler, on the other hand, will take the mound for Los Angeles. While he has a weaker record of 1-5 and a troubling 5.95 ERA, his xFIP of 4.63 indicates that he might have been unlucky this season. The projections suggest that he could perform better, but he must prove it against a Braves offense that ranks 13th overall, buoyed by their 5th ranking in home runs.

Despite the Braves’ struggles, Jorge Soler has emerged as a key player, leading the team over the last week with a .381 batting average and one home run. Conversely, Tommy Edman has been a standout for the Dodgers, also hitting .381 but with four home runs during the same stretch.

With both teams possessing strong offenses, the game total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair. The projections favor the Dodgers slightly, suggesting they will score around 5.43 runs, while the Braves are expected to tally 4.78 runs. As the teams clash, this matchup promises to deliver excitement and critical implications for both rosters.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Walker Buehler has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -8.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 98.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers makes them the #3 squad in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Charlie Morton’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (61.6% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna’s true offensive talent to be a .347, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .049 deviation between that mark and his actual .396 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Michael Harris II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 137 games (+36.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+14.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Austin Barnes – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+200/-265)
  Austin Barnes has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 47% ROI)