Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Twins vs Blue Jays Match Preview – April 12, 2026

Minnesota Twins

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Toronto Blue Jays

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Taj Bradley has gone to his change-up 6% more often this season (21.6%) than he did last season (15.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under Total Bases
  Josh Bell’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 94.6-mph average last season has fallen off to 89.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Minnesota Twins have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Tristan Gray, James Outman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  In his previous start, Max Scherzer was firing on all cylinders and conceded 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  In terms of his batting average, Tyler Heineman has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .295 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .189.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.