Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Braves vs Brewers Match Preview – June 10, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers

On June 10, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Atlanta Braves at American Family Field for the second game of their series. The Braves are coming off a commanding 7-1 victory over the Brewers in their last matchup, adding to the Brewers’ struggles as they sit at 35-32, an above-average record compared to the Braves’ disappointing 28-37 mark this season.

Quinn Priester is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, coming off a solid performance in his last start where he allowed just 1 earned run over 5 innings. His ERA stands at 3.88 this season, though his 4.58 FIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far. Priester’s ability to limit damage will be crucial, especially since he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which could be a challenge given the Brewers’ offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB.

Opposing him is Grant Holmes for the Braves, who has struggled this season. His ERA is slightly better at 3.99, but his recent outing was less than impressive, yielding 3 earned runs in just 3 innings. This matchup presents an interesting contrast; while Priester’s peripherals indicate potential regression, Holmes has not shown consistent performance, making this a potentially favorable matchup for the Brewers.

Offensively, the Brewers have been inconsistent, ranking 24th in home runs and 23rd in batting average. However, they do excel on the base paths, ranking 2nd in stolen bases, which could play a critical role in manufacturing runs against a Braves team that ranks 26th in that category.

With the Braves’ offense sitting at a middle-of-the-pack 15th overall, they’ll need to capitalize on any mistakes from Priester to keep their momentum going. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, signaling expectations for a competitive contest, and with betting markets leaning slightly towards the Braves, this game could be a pivotal moment for both teams’ seasons.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Grant Holmes in the 82nd percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season’s 92.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-135)
  The Atlanta Braves projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Bauers usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Grant Holmes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a unit place 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 6.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+10.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 away games (+6.85 Units / 55% ROI)