Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Rays vs Orioles – Saturday June 28, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on June 28, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, they find themselves struggling this season with a 35-46 record. In stark contrast, the Rays are enjoying a successful campaign at 46-36. This American League East matchup is critical, especially since each game plays a role in determining positioning in the standings.

In their most recent outing, the Rays edged the Orioles in a nail-biter, showcasing their depth and driving their momentum. As for the pitching matchups, Zach Eflin is slated to start for the Orioles. Despite holding a respectable 6-4 record, his 5.46 ERA this year suggests he has faced challenges, even though his 4.24 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky at times. Eflin projects to pitch 5.9 innings today but may allow a concerning average of 2.9 earned runs.

On the other side, Zack Littell will take the mound for the Rays. Although his 3.78 ERA is commendable, his 4.57 xERA hints at potential regression, suggesting he might be benefitting from good fortune. Littell’s numbers point towards a high likelihood of struggle against the Orioles’ lineup, ranked 24th best in MLB offensively, which has managed to hit only .230 this season.

Interestingly, both teams have outstanding hitters in form. The Rays’ best hitter recently posted a .381 batting average over the last week, while the Orioles’ best has also been productive, with 7 RBIs and 2 home runs. Given the projections, it’s worth noting the game total is set at a lofty 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair. With both teams at even money on the moneyline, bettors should keep a close eye on how each pitcher performs in this pivotal clash.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zach Eflin’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.9% compared to 62.7% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Gunnar Henderson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 100.4-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Gary Sanchez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+11.23 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.55 Units / 41% ROI)